A short while ago, just an hour or so before this writing, the following news article was posted at Kitco:
Kitco News -- Gold futures have fallen back below $1,600-an-ounce mark on prospects for progress in U.S. budget and deficit-ceiling talks. Bipartisan “Gang of Six” senators have offered a plan with $3.75 trillion in savings over 10 years that includes $1.2 trillion in new revenues, and the proposal has been supported by President Obama. “Something is making the stock market calm down considerably, and it’s probably the idea of the ‘Gang of Six’ mentioned by Mr. Obama as being on the right course,” says Sterling Smith, commodity trading advisor and market analyst with Country Hedging. Worries about the debt-ceiling impasse, and the potential for a U.S. default, had been one of several factors supporting gold lately, with observers saying a resolution could prompt a correction. “Being above $1,600 did make it vulnerable to a sell-off,” Smith says. As of 2:15 p.m. EDT, August gold was $14.90 lower at $1,587.50 an ounce
It’s plainly obvious to me that this ‘deal’ is just another spin on raising the debt ceiling and screwing the American taxpayer ever deeper into a financial coffin. The socialist Obama will not be happy until every last dime is extracted from those with “the ability to pay” and given to those who refuse to be productive. First off, the $3.75 trillion over ten years is coined as savings – not cuts. In all recent discussions with this bi-partisan group, the savings have merely been ‘less of an increase’ rather than a real cut in spending. A good analogy is that of a fat man who needs to lose 100lbs to regain his health. He needs to stop consuming 4500 calories a day and if can start consuming just 1500 calories a day he’ll be on track. Instead, he consumes 4000 calories a day and convinces himself that he is still losing weight because he has cut back his calories. A month later the scale shows he is heavier but to him that doesn’t matter, he's not fatter as fast as before. Such is the nonsensical argument of the democrats and the left wing republicans. (Thanks to Peter Schiff for imprinting this analogy)
Take a close look at what this ‘deal’ implies! $3.75 trillion is really $375 billion per year and that includes $120 billion in new revenues meaning the net cut in spending proposals is $495 billion. Since the current spending is $1.6 trillion beyond revenues, that means they are agreeing to spend $1.105 trillion beyond revenues in 2012 and beyond.
If we consider that interest rates on the debt cannot get any lower, then they must remain the same or go higher. As there is more debt, there will have to be a greater and greater portion of revenues being used to pay down the debt. More cuts will have to be announced next year in order to meet interest payments. Not only that, but Moody’s reported that 5 of 15 U.S. states that they currently have rated AAA and that rely on Federal funding to make ends meet are now on a watch list for debt. If the Fed chooses not to bail out the States, then those states will see much higher interest rates from private sector borrowing which will be passed on to the taxpayers. With less personal income due to state taxes, there will be less money available for consumption causing further pressure on retailers in an environment where commercial retail properties are already experiencing sky high vacancies and record bankruptcies. The cycle will deepen and America will be forced to go deeper and deeper in debt to the tune of at least a trillion a year and I would suggest that is probably being conservative.
The only real hedge is physical commodities. I am buying commodity based companies and using the profits to buy physical commodities. I am also financing my mortgage debt at the longest time frame I can afford – 10 years. Sometime in the next 2-5 years, control of interest rates will have been relinquished to the bond market and rates will begin a homeowner crushing ascent. and everyone will be wishing they could buy gold for $2500 an ounce.